Mohamed Nasheed was overthrown in a coup, the driving forces behind which were the army and police, in February 2012 . the former Vice - President Mohamed Waheed was appointed the acting president, whose mandate expires on November 11.
In September of this year, the first round of presidential elections were held, in which the undisputed leader Mohamed Nasheed emerged victorious. He received more than 45 % of the vote - remindsBoris Volkhonsky . - It enabled Nasheed to leave other candidates far behind, but did not allow him to win in the first round . The second place went to Abdulla Yamin, half-brother of former dictator Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who ruled the country for over 30 years.
But following a complaint by the candidate, who came to finish third, the former finance minister Qasim Ibrahim, the results of the first round had been annulled on the grounds of the allegations that there were too many "dead souls “ in the voter lists. It is noteworthy that the acting President Wahid also participated in the first round, but won only 5 % of the vote .
Then new elections were announced, which were to be held on October 19. Mohamed Waheed withdrew his candidacy. But the other two candidates - Qasim Ibrahim and Abdulla Yamin - said that they supposedly did not have time to get acquainted with updated registry of voters, which means that elections cannot take place .
The Supreme Court has not taken a clear position, but, as in February 2012, again the police intervened in the business and stopped the distribution of ballots and other working documents.
The country is facing the threat of a constitutional crisis. The powers of the interim President Wahid expire on November 11. If before that time a new president is not elected, there will be a power vacuum . Now the authorities are urgently trying to " correct the isituation ", which they themselves have created. A new election is scheduled for November 9. If a second round is needed, it will be held on November 16.
Frantic attempts to block the election of Mohamed Nasheed in fact have opposite effects. There is growing outrage against the authorities, and if the process goes in a democratic way, there can be no doubt about the victory of Nasheed (possibly in the first round ), says Boris Volkhonsky :
However, there are indications that the forces opposed to Nasheed will again try to derail the democratic process. The fact is that these forces are very influential . Nasheed is pitted against the old bureaucracy, which was formed in the years of President Gayoom, Islamists who are lifting their heads and, and most importantly, the influential stratum of businessmen, who made their fortune in the boom of tourism industry in the last 30-40 years. Suffice it to say that Qasim Ibrahim is the founder and owner of one of the largest chain of resorts in the country.
During the reign of Gayoom there was virtually no taxation in the country, allowing hoteliers to feel quite at ease . Mohamed Nasheed attempted to restore order in this sphere which, on the one hand, upset the local " oligarchs " and on the other hand, came as a blow to tourists because the new taxes raised prices for the services of the hotels. And these "oligarchs" who were behind the scenes in February 2012, are also strongly inhibiting the re-election of Nasheed.
Therefore, if the situation in the Maldives is left on its own, then there are serious doubts that democracy will prevail. And then a lot will depend on the position of other interested countries, as the Maldivian economy is in dire need of foreign investment. In this case, perhaps India has the most important word to say, for the movement of the Maldives on the undemocratic path is fraught with the creation of a new potential source of radical Islam and threatens the country slipping further into the orbit of Chinese policy in the Indian Ocean.